Monday, January 28, 2008

My thoughts on the subprime crisis

Since you've been asking (click for full size):

Sunday, January 27, 2008

Remember Iraq?

Reuters is carrying a story, picked up (and buried) by Drudge, titled "Iraq ready for "final" battle with al Qaeda: PM" - anybody remember when Iraq was an election topic; or for that matter, a news topic?

With the furor over the wide-open Presidential election, one might expect that the 800 pound foreign policy gorilla that is Iraq would be loudly exerting its presence. But, as some readers have emailed, we see quite the opposite - we are instead treated to a series of variously relevant, or intelligible, economy prescriptions. (Warning: Krugman Alert!) Perhaps this is a consequence of recent economic insecurity and recession fears; perhaps talking about people's money is good politics - if the so-called "bipartisan stimulus package" tells us anything, giving people money you don't have remains a sound path to re-election. But I suspect the real reason is already clear from the Reuters article:

Iraqi security forces have begun a "decisive" final offensive against al Qaeda in Iraq to push the Sunni Islamist militants out of their last major stronghold in the north, Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki said on Friday...

"We defeated al Qaeda, now there is just Nineveh province where they escaped to, and Kirkuk," Maliki said, referring to another northern city.

Of course, one would expect Prime Minister Maliki to be optimistic about his country's security, but I think it speaks volumes about our own politicians, and our news media, that the current developments and trends in Iraq are being so underreported. Once the rhetorical bloviating over the failed "political benchmarks" (a legitimate, but I believe limited, critique) proved ineffective, opponents of the war and the current strategy instead adopted an attitude of blasé ignorance, and the topic has slipped from the national conscious. Conveniently, this served the dual purposes of both neutralizing the successes as a campaign issue, and cementing public sentiment on the topic before so many positive developments could have influenced it. At this rate, AQI will be gone and there will be nobody there to celebrate - perhaps al Qaeda in Iraq needs its own stimulus package...

Sunday, January 13, 2008

What are you listening to?

On the lighter side of things, I've been discovering (and rediscovering) a lot of good music lately. The return to the studying grind after winter break definitely helped, and you'll find that the common thread in my music for the week is an emphasis on continuity as an album, ideal for playing and forgetting while the pages drag by. Links to the Amazon page are included, but if you're in college use Ruckus - it's free and legal, and the artists get compensated.

Leave a comment - tell me what you think of my picks, and let me know what you have been listening to lately.

  • Sara Bareilles - Little Voices: With aspects similar to other female musicians arriving lately, as part of the latest resurgence in bluesy influenced pop-piano, what sets her apart are her tremendous vocal work, and the occasionally inspiring depth of her lyrics. It has it's limits, and sometimes the themes seem a little repetitive, but taken for what it is this is a solid, solid album - most importantly it's very listenable. (link)

  • Alison Krauss & Union Station - Live: Wow. This album is a roller coaster ride of amazing Blue Grass music, complemented by Krauss' positively haunting voice. If you're not a fan or familiar with the genre, this is an excellent primer. If you are, then you will not be disappointed. Several of the instrumental pieces really shine, as do most of the countrier twanged, upbeat melodic tracks, and Krauss' crooning on the ballad numbers is chilling. One of the few albums I've ever come across that immediately captivated, and kept me there from start to finish. I can't recommend it enough. (link)

  • Kings of Convenience - Riot on an Empty Street: I've been stuck on this one for a while. Kings of Convenience, as described by the person who introduced me to them, "are a mix of Folk, Rock and Norwegian Bossa Nova " (hat tip: GLS). Their unique style of guitar and instrumentation lends itself to a sort of beat-driven Simon and Garfunkel. This album in particular manages to contrast their quicker, funkier side, with haunting melodies and deeper prose of their slower works. The harmony on Surprise Ice will catch your breath every time, and Misread has one of the catchiest beats this genre has produced in a while. Check out "Quiet is the New Loud," their earlier album too - they're both winners. (link)

Friday, January 11, 2008

SC Debate Fallout

I posted a quick note last night while the candidates were still sparing, but a night to think and read more following the "Brawl on the Beach" have gelled a few clear conclusions:

  • Fred Thompson won hands down, and delivered a warning shot to the GOP field: A lot of supporters have been clamoring for a strong showing by Thompson, and he finally delivered. A number of solid, assertive answers on immigration, Iran/Pakistan, and fiscal policy put him firmly in control, but the highlight of the evening, and the first cause for raucous applause, was his trouncing of Huckabee on his record of liberal fiscal policy and big government politics. Check out the video below.

    Many have complained that Thompson appears "lazy" and "uninterested," but there's no way to deny the was bringing he heat last night. If he can push his way back into the media spotlight, and use his new found fundraising for a successful advertising campaign, he can position himself for a victory and a reshaping of the GOP primary.




  • McCain, not Huckabee, is the man to beat: While a lot can change, especially following the debate and the media blitz to follow, it is clear that McCain was in control heading into last night. If his cautious, maintainance oriented performance wasn't clue enough, the subtle jab from Rudy about supporting the surge showed that candidates will be targeting the Senator after his victory in New Hampshire. Several polls, finished before the debate, also have McCain swinging to the lead ahead of Huckabee.

    Not only do Romney and Huckabee need to step up criticism of McCain's vulnerable record, but if Thompson wants to complete his own McCain-esque resurgence, he'll need light up McCain's record like he did Huckabee's - and keep the pressure on.

  • Romney needs a win: His first place in Wyoming aside, the fatigue of the media's overreaction to his second place finishes in New Hampshire and Iowa are starting to show. He responded well to Ron Paul's nonsense about Israel, but he could have used it as an opportunity to sieze control of the debate from Thompson with a fiery stump on foreign policy. He didn't.

    Moreover, his fate in South Carolina may depend on the Michigan results, and the media spin on those results. If he fades to second there as well, support could start to shift to Thompson or McCain, depending on who's leading SC polls at the time. A win in Michigan, and Romney could be looking at a conservative, southern state with a large number of undecided voters that is ripe for the picking. Other than Thompson, Romney is the most conservative of the bunch, and a win in Michigan will be crucial to capturing a piece of the media pie in the "First in the South" primary.

Thursday, January 10, 2008

South Carolina Debate Quick Thought

[Update!] Here's a better version of the quote/attack by Thompson:

"On the one hand," he said, "you have the Reagan revolution, you have the Reagan coalition of limited government and strong national security. And the other hand, you have the direction that Governor Huckabee would take us in. He would be a Christian leader, but he would also bring about liberal economic policies, liberal foreign policies."

Thompson then lit into Huckabee, the former Baptist preacher and Arkansas governor who won the Iowa caucus, for wanting to close the U.S. military prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, for supporting what he called "taxpayer-funded programs for illegals" and for wanting to sign a law restricting smoking.

"That's not the model of the Reagan coalition, that's the model of the Democratic Party," he said.


Fred Thompson just made his move - blasts Huckabee on his liberal record and "Reagan" pandering (paraphrase):
That doesn't sound like the Reagan coalition, that sounds like the platform of the Democratic Party!

Wednesday, January 9, 2008

After New Hampshire

Well, so much for Clinton Inc. going down without a fight. With her come-from-behind victory in New Hampshire, and John McCain's media-fueled resurgence, the race is once again wide open. Or is it?

A quick look over at RealClearPolitics.com tells a different story. For the Democrats, Obama may have needed another win to actually pull this thing off. While the media loves to swing elections (John McCain's reappearance act anyone?), they may not be able to stem the tide after Clinton has regained her footing. She leads Florida, California and Nevada by nearly 20 points apiece. The polls for Nevada are from December, though, so that race may change following the Iowa victory. And, of course, Obama is leading South Carolina by at least 10. But a string of losses for Obama, coupled with Hillary's strong super tuesday outlook could spell the end for the senator from Illinois.

On the Republican side, it looks like a game of Primary "Risk." Things are indeed wide open - at least for the next two weeks: Michigan is still leaning Romney, albeit slightly, while Huckabee controls South Carolina and Guliani is commanding Florida and California. Fred Thompson (among the favored candidates at The Oath!) has made South Carolina his battleground, hoping that a strong showing will lead to a surge in support like the one that propelled him to third in Iowa. As for McCain, his future is uncertain. He's polling well, usually second or third, in all of the above races, but will need to make up significant ground. There isn't any new polling out, however, following his victory in New Hampshire, so things may get more interesting in Michigan and Nevada before long.

Monday, January 7, 2008

OLED headed to the US

The next generation of display technology is finally coming to US shelves, albeit in a small, very expensive package. Sony announced at this week's Consumer Electronics Show that their XEL-1 11" OLED TV will be going on sale in the US - for a mere $2,500 (!). Of course, this is only the first step, and much more promising was the 27" prototype they demoed as well (Gallery here). It's positively gorgeous, and large enough to actually be useful outside the ultra-rich kitchen/bathroom demographic.

Is Duncan Hunter out?

Michelle Malkin reports that a big hunter announcement is coming this afternoon. If he drops, will be endorse Fred?

Friday, January 4, 2008

Iowa Fallout - Are we Hucked?

The results in Iowa, while not a surprise, are indeed indicative of a shift in the primary paradigm. While the big stories are, of course, Obama trouncing Hilary and the "Huckaboom," the real stories lie a little beneath the surface. Some quick thoughts:

  • Huckabee can't keep it up: I'm going to disagree with the main stream on this one. The big talk after the win in Iowa is whether or not Huckabee is now the front runner. Please. The talk in New Hampshire is all Romney/McCain. And South Carolina is far from decided. While Mike has benefited from the lack of information about his politics ex-religion, that fog will not last indefinitely. With this victory will come increased scrutiny of his policies, and he will soon show signs of fatigue. So don't worry folks - we're not Hucked yet.

  • John McCain is Back: Outside of the meteoric rise of the Clinton-esque Mike Huckabee, the big slobber line for the media is the return of "Maverick" favorite John McCain. I recently discussed an article highlighting his unorthodox but compelling credentials, but I remain unconvinced. The media love-fest over his reappearance in the campaign only adds to the suspicion. That said, he looks renewed headed to the show down with Romney in NH

  • Ron Paul has a point: Relax - he won't win the nomination. But the presence of such a radical candidate, and the fact that he is garnering significant support (double digits anyone?) indicates that powerful new ideas outside the so-called "Progressive" wing can still be a force for change in American politics.

  • Fred Thompson is still alive: Yes, he finished third. But that's better than expected, and he's vowed to stay in the race. Moreover, he holds an ace in the hole that few other candidates have considered - Wyoming. While the caucus carries less significance, it also has the most potential for a strong Thompson finish before the Do-or-Die South Carolina primary. Lynne Cheney is working for the Thompson campaign, and he could really garner some momentum with a win or strong second in Wyoming.

  • John Edwards is Done: It's been a nice ride for the talking populist hair cut, but he isn't looking good elsewhere. He can savor the .5% win over Hilary, and hope for another VP nomination (although I doubt it).

Thoughts? Leave a comment - I'd like to know how the results struck folks.