Friday, January 4, 2008

Iowa Fallout - Are we Hucked?

The results in Iowa, while not a surprise, are indeed indicative of a shift in the primary paradigm. While the big stories are, of course, Obama trouncing Hilary and the "Huckaboom," the real stories lie a little beneath the surface. Some quick thoughts:

  • Huckabee can't keep it up: I'm going to disagree with the main stream on this one. The big talk after the win in Iowa is whether or not Huckabee is now the front runner. Please. The talk in New Hampshire is all Romney/McCain. And South Carolina is far from decided. While Mike has benefited from the lack of information about his politics ex-religion, that fog will not last indefinitely. With this victory will come increased scrutiny of his policies, and he will soon show signs of fatigue. So don't worry folks - we're not Hucked yet.

  • John McCain is Back: Outside of the meteoric rise of the Clinton-esque Mike Huckabee, the big slobber line for the media is the return of "Maverick" favorite John McCain. I recently discussed an article highlighting his unorthodox but compelling credentials, but I remain unconvinced. The media love-fest over his reappearance in the campaign only adds to the suspicion. That said, he looks renewed headed to the show down with Romney in NH

  • Ron Paul has a point: Relax - he won't win the nomination. But the presence of such a radical candidate, and the fact that he is garnering significant support (double digits anyone?) indicates that powerful new ideas outside the so-called "Progressive" wing can still be a force for change in American politics.

  • Fred Thompson is still alive: Yes, he finished third. But that's better than expected, and he's vowed to stay in the race. Moreover, he holds an ace in the hole that few other candidates have considered - Wyoming. While the caucus carries less significance, it also has the most potential for a strong Thompson finish before the Do-or-Die South Carolina primary. Lynne Cheney is working for the Thompson campaign, and he could really garner some momentum with a win or strong second in Wyoming.

  • John Edwards is Done: It's been a nice ride for the talking populist hair cut, but he isn't looking good elsewhere. He can savor the .5% win over Hilary, and hope for another VP nomination (although I doubt it).

Thoughts? Leave a comment - I'd like to know how the results struck folks.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

well, u know me...i dont pay attention enough to really have an opinion....i just kinda jump on yours. so, GO THOMPSON!

actually, i am a thompson supporter because he most closely resembles my stance on most everything. my only question is if he is a winnable candidate against the dem. cand. should he win the nomination...