SC Debate Fallout

I posted a quick note last night while the candidates were still sparing, but a night to think and read more following the "Brawl on the Beach" have gelled a few clear conclusions:

• Fred Thompson won hands down, and delivered a warning shot to the GOP field: A lot of supporters have been clamoring for a strong showing by Thompson, and he finally delivered. A number of solid, assertive answers on immigration, Iran/Pakistan, and fiscal policy put him firmly in control, but the highlight of the evening, and the first cause for raucous applause, was his trouncing of Huckabee on his record of liberal fiscal policy and big government politics. Check out the video below.
  
  Many have complained that Thompson appears "lazy" and "uninterested," but there's no way to deny the was bringing he heat last night. If he can push his way back into the media spotlight, and use his new found fundraising for a successful advertising campaign, he can position himself for a victory and a reshaping of the GOP primary.





• McCain, not Huckabee, is the man to beat: While a lot can change, especially following the debate and the media blitz to follow, it is clear that McCain was in control heading into last night. If his cautious, maintainance oriented performance wasn't clue enough, the subtle jab from Rudy about supporting the surge showed that candidates will be targeting the Senator after his victory in New Hampshire. Several polls, finished before the debate, also have McCain swinging to the lead ahead of Huckabee.
  
  Not only do Romney and Huckabee need to step up criticism of McCain's vulnerable record, but if Thompson wants to complete his own McCain-esque resurgence, he'll need light up McCain's record like he did Huckabee's - and keep the pressure on.


• Romney needs a win: His first place in Wyoming aside, the fatigue of the media's overreaction to his second place finishes in New Hampshire and Iowa are starting to show. He responded well to Ron Paul's nonsense about Israel, but he could have used it as an opportunity to sieze control of the debate from Thompson with a fiery stump on foreign policy. He didn't.
  
  Moreover, his fate in South Carolina may depend on the Michigan results, and the media spin on those results. If he fades to second there as well, support could start to shift to Thompson or McCain, depending on who's leading SC polls at the time. A win in Michigan, and Romney could be looking at a conservative, southern state with a large number of undecided voters that is ripe for the picking. Other than Thompson, Romney is the most conservative of the bunch, and a win in Michigan will be crucial to capturing a piece of the media pie in the "First in the South" primary.

After New Hampshire

Well, so much for Clinton Inc. going down without a fight. With her come-from-behind victory in New Hampshire, and John McCain's media-fueled resurgence, the race is once again wide open. Or is it?

A quick look over at RealClearPolitics.com tells a different story. For the Democrats, Obama may have needed another win to actually pull this thing off. While the media loves to swing elections (John McCain's reappearance act anyone?), they may not be able to stem the tide after Clinton has regained her footing. She leads Florida, California and Nevada by nearly 20 points apiece. The polls for Nevada are from December, though, so that race may change following the Iowa victory. And, of course, Obama is leading South Carolina by at least 10. But a string of losses for Obama, coupled with Hillary's strong super tuesday outlook could spell the end for the senator from Illinois.

On the Republican side, it looks like a game of Primary "Risk." Things are indeed wide open - at least for the next two weeks: Michigan is still leaning Romney, albeit slightly, while Huckabee controls South Carolina and Guliani is commanding Florida and California. Fred Thompson (among the favored candidates at The Oath!) has made South Carolina his battleground, hoping that a strong showing will lead to a surge in support like the one that propelled him to third in Iowa. As for McCain, his future is uncertain. He's polling well, usually second or third, in all of the above races, but will need to make up significant ground. There isn't any new polling out, however, following his victory in New Hampshire, so things may get more interesting in Michigan and Nevada before long.

Iowa Fallout - Are we Hucked?

The results in Iowa, while not a surprise, are indeed indicative of a shift in the primary paradigm. While the big stories are, of course, Obama trouncing Hilary and the "Huckaboom," the real stories lie a little beneath the surface. Some quick thoughts:

• Huckabee can't keep it up: I'm going to disagree with the main stream on this one. The big talk after the win in Iowa is whether or not Huckabee is now the front runner. Please. The talk in New Hampshire is all Romney/McCain. And South Carolina is far from decided. While Mike has benefited from the lack of information about his politics ex-religion, that fog will not last indefinitely. With this victory will come increased scrutiny of his policies, and he will soon show signs of fatigue. So don't worry folks - we're not Hucked yet.


• John McCain is Back: Outside of the meteoric rise of the Clinton-esque Mike Huckabee, the big slobber line for the media is the return of "Maverick" favorite John McCain. I recently discussed an article highlighting his unorthodox but compelling credentials, but I remain unconvinced. The media love-fest over his reappearance in the campaign only adds to the suspicion. That said, he looks renewed headed to the show down with Romney in NH


• Ron Paul has a point: Relax - he won't win the nomination. But the presence of such a radical candidate, and the fact that he is garnering significant support (double digits anyone?) indicates that powerful new ideas outside the so-called "Progressive" wing can still be a force for change in American politics.


• Fred Thompson is still alive: Yes, he finished third. But that's better than expected, and he's vowed to stay in the race. Moreover, he holds an ace in the hole that few other candidates have considered - Wyoming. While the caucus carries less significance, it also has the most potential for a strong Thompson finish before the Do-or-Die South Carolina primary. Lynne Cheney is working for the Thompson campaign, and he could really garner some momentum with a win or strong second in Wyoming.


• John Edwards is Done: It's been a nice ride for the talking populist hair cut, but he isn't looking good elsewhere. He can savor the .5% win over Hilary, and hope for another VP nomination (although I doubt it).

Thoughts? Leave a comment - I'd like to know how the results struck folks.

Chavez, Putin, McCain and The Heisman - Daily Reading - 12/06/2007

Today's articles include positive analysis of both Thompson and McCain, as well as a look at college football superstars' shortcomings in the NFL and some continuing coverage on the landmark defeat on Chavez. I hope to have more to say on the Chavez subject in the next day or two, in particular the lukewarm reception the outcome has had in the US press - not that anyone ought to be surprised. Nonetheless, the outcome is historic and encouraging, whether some choose to ignore it or not.

I've made my feelings known on Thompson before, particularly his excellent white paper on tax reform. As for McCain, a reader writes to argue his credentials as an unorthodox and atypical candidate - a position that McCain seems to relish. The reader writes

I personally like his willingness to break with the Republican orthodoxy on issues like immigration, tax policy, campaign finance, farm subsidies, and global warming, as well as his character and judgment.

In truth, an apparent mixed bag. Although his willingness to call a horse a horse when it comes to spending is certainly encouraging, I remain unconvinced of the merits of McCain/Feingold, an opinion the write does not seem to share.

At any rate, a set of excellent reads. More to come - Enjoy.

• "A Tale of Two Dictators" - National Review


• "The case for John McCain" - The Economist (Hat Tip: AWF)


• "Why This Southern Baptist Minister Supports Fred Thompson" - Red State


• "Heisman Is No Key to NFL Glory" - Why do so few winners make it in the pros? - OpinionJournal

Daily Reading - 12/04/2007

What we're reading at The Oath:

• "Fred is Dead? Reports are Premature" - Human Events


• "Cut Tax Rates, Not the Fed Funds Rate" - National Review


• "Sen. John McCain & Sen. Joe Lieberman: It's inexcusable for Congress not to fund troops in Iraq" - The Union Leader


• "Venezuelans Rain on Hugo" - Opinion Journal


• Sony OLED display unboxed (With Pictures!) - TV Snob (via Gizmodo)

Fred Thompson's Window of Opportunity

Of all the oddities of the current election cycle, I am most puzzled by Fred Thompson's failure to seize upon the numerous opportunities he has been handed since entering the race. I won't pretend that I am unbiased - he's certainly the candidate I am the most intrigued with, especially in light of his penchant for "straight talk" and sticking to his ideology. More conservative, it would seem, than Giuliani and with more potential for Christian Right appeal than Romney, he has all the makings of the popular candidate. His proposals, moreover, have been by far the most substantial, and carry a broad appeal - see as an example his Tax Reform Plan, which proposes lower corporate tax rates, repealing the AMT, and instating an opt-in flat tax with 10% and 25% flat income brackets. Certainly more food for thought than the usual "Make the Bush Tax Cuts Permanent." The general feeling when he announced his candidacy, in fact, was that people want him to assume the role of the consensus GOP candidate. He just doesn't seem to have done it.

The Times wrote on Friday that Thompson is viewed as lazy and that his campaign events are haphazardly prepared and often surprisingly sparse. While Thompson is quick to point out that this style of campaigning was far more regular in the past, and indeed the norm for Reagan, this is not a typical election cycle. The lack of a clear Republican choice, the deluge of media attention, both new and old, and the particularly partisan state of politics has created an environment that demands incredible amounts of action on the part of any of the candidates.

All that said, it seems like Thompson has been dealt at least one more chance to make a run at a bounce, especially in the South, where he polls the strongest (RCP average here). The combination of a recent, but uncapitalized, NRLC endorsement of his surprisingly Libertarian stance on Abortion, and a strong showing at the most recent debate, mean that he has another chance to seize momentum in the race that desperately wants a front runner. His best strategy - a marketing blitz touting his more common-sense conservative credentials and his strong endorsements, and an increase in his presence in the states he is competitive in. If he can remind people why they wanted him to enter the race, and why so many have quipped that he's the candidate people want to support, he might be able to turn some heads in Iowa and South Carolina, and turn his campaign around.